Abstract
Striking examples of local adaptation at fine geographic scales are increasingly being documented in natural populations. However, the relative contributions made by natural selection, phenotype-dependent dispersal (when individuals disperse with respect to a habitat preference), and mate preference in generating and maintaining microgeographic adaptation and divergence are not well studied. Here, we develop quantitative genetics models and individual-based simulations (IBSs) to uncover the evolutionary forces that possibly drive microgeographic divergence. We also perform Bayesian estimation of the parameters in our IBS using empirical data on habitat-specific variation in bill morphology in the island scrub-jay (Aphelocoma insularis) to apply our models to a natural system. We find that natural selection and phenotype-dependent dispersal can generate the patterns of divergence we observe in the island scrub-jay. However, mate preference for a mate with similar bill morphology, even though observed in the species, does not play a significant role in driving divergence. Our modeling approach provides insights into phenotypic evolution occurring over small spatial scales relative to dispersal ranges, suggesting that adaptive divergence at microgeographic scales may be common across a wider range of taxa than previously thought. Our quantitative genetic models help to inform future theoretical and empirical work to determine how selection, habitat preference, and mate preference contribute to local adaptation and microgeographic divergence.