Abstract
In this report, we use a timber supply model for western Oregon to estimate the economic and ecological effects of forest certification. We estimate opportunity cost, the foregone value of wood production as a result of complying with certification standards, in the case of a $28/1000 board feet (mbf) and a $56/mbf certification bonus payment. Results indicate that, within the 100-year time horizon, 20 and 60% of total acres choose to certify, respectively. However, we find that the ecological benefit of certification, measured in terms of acres of old forest structure, is minimal. We also estimate certification levels when “group certification” is considered. When aggregated areas are permitted to certify as a group, we find that significantly more acres choose to certify and that they do so earlier.