Abstract
It is of significant importance to prevent and control mining damage by quantitatively investigating the dynamic development law of overburden movement and deformation. Based on the principle of probability integral, a static prediction model of overlying strata movement and deformation was firstly derived in this study, and a subsidence coefficient model of overlying strata was then established. By combining the new static prediction model with periodic fracture characteristics of main roof and Knothe time function, a dynamic prediction model was proposed to predict mining-induced overburden movement and deformation, which is capable of achieving the dynamic and quantitative prediction of the behavior of the overlying strata. A Knothe time function parameter evaluation method was also constructed based on the main influence radius of surface mining sub-sidence. Taking the geological and mining conditions of T2195 working face of a coal mine as a case study, applicability of the model was studied for real prediction, and the reliability of the model was verified by comparing the measured data with the predicted results. The results showed that there is high consistency be-tween the measured and predicted data, indicating the effectiveness and reliability of the proposed model. The research results not only provide technical support for the prevention and control of mining damage, but also further improve and enrich the theoretical system of mining subsidence.