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Intraday market momentum in coffee futures: Dynamics and drivers
Journal article

Intraday market momentum in coffee futures: Dynamics and drivers

Anabelle Couleau, Andres Trujillo-Barrera and Xiaoli Etienne
Journal of commodity markets, Vol.41, pp.1-15
03/2026

Abstract

Coffee futures Intraday momentum Liquidity Predictability
The Coffee ‘C’ futures contract traded on the InterContinental Exchange is recognized as the global benchmark for coffee pricing. Using high-frequency tick data from January 2010 to November 2021, we document the presence and drivers of intraday market momentum for the Coffee ‘C’ futures contract. Intraday market momentum is time-varying and emerges primarily during periods of elevated volatility and concentrated in the upper tails of the return distribution. Persistence tests indicate that early-day momentum linked to overnight and morning returns tends to carry over across days, consistent with gradual information incorporation and the late-informed trading hypothesis, while late-day momentum dissipates quickly, reflecting portfolio rebalancing and hedging pressures. Regression evidence suggests that stronger intraday momentum tend to coincide with faster quoting activity, greater opening liquidity demand, and lower speculative participation.
url
doi.org/10.1016/j.jcomm.2025.100537View

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