Abstract
While numerous studies have investigated demand management policies as a means of mitigating the impacts of climate change and population growth, little attention has been given to the interaction of spatial population patterns and water institutions that affect water shortages. In this article, we develop a methodology to evaluate how population location under alternative water institutions and climate scenarios impacts water demands, shortages, and derived economic values. We apply this methodology to the South Platte River Basin (SPRB) in Northeastern Colorado under three scenarios with ∼1,800 simulations. Results suggest that while water rights institutions have a negligible impact on total volumetric shortages relative to climate change, they have substantial distributional and economic implications. Results also suggest that continuous population growth in upstream cities yields the lowest water shortages if per capita use decreases with urbanization. However, if we assume that per capita demands do not decrease with population density, an equal distribution of population to upstream and downstream regions yields the lowest water shortage and highest economic value. These findings indicate the need that planning efforts must account for return flows and development patterns throughout a watershed in order to reduce water shortages and promote economic prosperity.