Abstract
Purpose: This study analyzes Landsat images to examine the alterations in land cover within the Sundarbans and its surrounding regions in Bangladesh, spanning twenty-one years from 2000 to 2021. Furthermore, we develop a mangrove vulnerability map considering the combined effect of eight socioeconomic, geophysical, and climatic factors. Methods: Land use land cover (LULC) changes in the study area over a 21-year period were assessed using a random forest model, and the vulnerability analysis employed a fuzzy expert-based multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) approach. Results: The results show that a significant portion of the mangrove forest has been transformed into aquaculture practices because of the expansion of high-value shrimp cultivation. A decrease in forest areas and the expansion of aquaculture zones suggest a livelihood shift among the local population over time. This transition has adversely affected human activities within the ecosystem and the biodiversity of mangrove forests. Consequently, it is imperative to implement suitable measures to enhance the state of mangrove forests and safeguard their biodiversity. The vulnerability analysis shows that the highly vulnerable, moderately vulnerable, and low vulnerable areas cover 35.66%, 26.86%, and 19.42%, respectively. Conclusion: The vulnerability maps generated in this research could serve as a valuable resource for coastal planners seeking to ensure the sustainable stewardship of these coastal mangrove forests. These results offer a detailed understanding of coastal mangrove LULC patterns and vulnerability status, which will be useful for policymakers and resource managers to urgently incorporate into coastal land use and environmental management practices.