Abstract
Antibody escape mutations pose a significant challenge to the effectiveness of vaccines and antibody-based therapies. The ability to predict these escape mutations with computer simulations would allow us to detect threats early and develop effective countermeasures, but a lack of large-scale experimental data has hampered the validation of these calculations. In this study, we evaluate the ability of the MD+FoldX molecular modeling method to predict escape mutations by leveraging a large deep mutational scanning dataset, focusing on the SARS-CoV-2 receptor binding domain. Our results show a positive correlation between predicted and experimental data, indicating that mutations with reduced predicted binding affinity correlate moderately with higher experimental escape fractions. We also demonstrate that higher precision can be achieved using affinity cutoffs tailored to distinct SARS-CoV-2 antibodies from four different classes rather than a one-size-fits-all approach. Further, we suggest that the quartile values of optimized cutoffs reported for each class in this study can serve as a valuable guide for future work on escape mutation predictions. We find that 70% of the systems surpass the 50% precision mark, and demonstrate success in identifying mutations present in significant variants of concern and variants of interest. Despite promising results for some systems, our study highlights the challenges in comparing predicted and experimental values. It also emphasizes the need for new binding affinity methods with improved accuracy that are fast enough to estimate hundreds to thousands of antibody-antigen binding affinities.