Abstract
This thesis maps the post-harvest flow of beef products and estimates shipment mileage between 41 large Federally Inspected (FI) slaughter facilities and over 3,100 counties across the United States. Using consumer expenditure data and facility-level production estimates, we modeled the county-level demand and supply of specific beef cuts–ground beef, chuck, rib, loin, round, and thin cuts–and applied a linear programming optimization framework to minimize total transportation distance.County-level beef consumption was estimated by scaling household consumption estimates to county-level demographic and income data. Results reveal significant nonlinear relationships between beef expenditure and demographic factors such as age and income, and notable regional variation in consumption patterns.
The optimization model shows that while the Midwest and West are largely self-sufficient, the South and Northeast rely on long-distance shipments, with shipment mileage reaching above 1,600 miles in some eastern counties. A robustness check using USDA regional beef demand estimates and Census population data confirms the consistency of shipment mileage outcomes. Policy implications include potential benefits from increasing slaughter and feedlot capacity in the eastern U.S. and expanding grass-finished beef systems where environmentally and economically viable.
This study offers a scalable, data-driven framework for analyzing spatial beef flows. The results enhance understanding of beef supply chains and provide a basis for evaluating transportation efficiency and regional infrastructure needs in the U.S. beef sector.