Abstract
In the Inland Pacific Northwest (IPNW), the increasing frequency of extreme spring precipitation events has led to widespread use of Prevented Plant (PP) insurance, creating a critical conservation challenge. While this federal program provides essential financial risk management for agricultural producers, it incentivizes leaving claimed land fallow, making the region’s valuable soils highly vulnerable to erosion. This dissertation explores the misalignment between short-term economic relief from agricultural insurance and long-term conservation goals. The research identifies the motivations influencing producer decisions, quantifies the environmental impact of those decisions, and analyzes the factors that predict producer behavior. This study is grounded in a survey of 339 producers across an eight-county region, an analysis of 15 years of regional climate and insurance data, and process-based soil erosion modeling.
Findings reveal that producer decisions on PP insurance are motivated primarily by short-term financial survival, which often leads to outcomes that conflict with their long-term conservation goals. This disconnect results in a counterproductive system where a program meant to reduce risk inadvertently creates significant environmental liability, with 84% of respondents who have submitted PP claims reporting they have left claimed land fallow after at least one claim. This research demonstrates that modest policy changes and financial incentives for alternatives, such as cover cropping, are financially feasible and could bridge the gap between risk management and conservation. Chapter 1 uses survey data to identify and compare these conflicting motivations, revealing that PP decisions are commonly based on immediate financial needs while conservation decisions are most often rooted in long-term environmental benefits. Chapter 2 employs spatial and statistical analysis, as well as soil erosion modeling, to quantify soil erosion associated with PP insurance and establish a link between precipitation characteristics and PP claims. Results demonstrate that February-April Potential Excess Water (PEWfa) is significantly correlated with the number of PP claims in a particular year. Results also demonstrate that fallow increases erosion to over three times the acceptable soil loss tolerance. Chapter 3 establishes a profile of producers with high future conservation intent, revealing that financial reliance on agriculture, intrinsic value for the environment, and a
desire to personally address agroecological issues are key predictors. However, the study reveals a behavioral disconnect, 83% of high-intent producers that have previously filed a PP claim left land fallow after at least one claim. This demonstrates that risk management pressures often override producers’ conservation intent. Ultimately, this dissertation explores the interconnected nature of the extreme weather, risk management, and conservation nexus, providing an evidence-based pathway for realigning federal policy with long-term ecological resilience.