Abstract
This project employs stakeholder-driven scenarios identified in the National Science Foundation s (NSF) Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) Genes by Environment: Modeling, Mechanisms, and Mapping (GEM3) program s Owyhee site (in southwest Idaho) to determine plausible alternative futures with respect to fire regime change and best management practices (BMP s) in the region. The mixed-methods approach of this project makes use of spatiotemporal Geographical Information System (GIS) data, local knowledge and ideals, as well as statistical modeling, specifically forest-based forecasting, to create a clearer picture of what the future of the region could look like given stakeholder-driven scenarios of future land use and land cover change. Results provide a framework for disseminating the process as well as potential solutions to address fire uncertainty. It is hoped the outputs of this project will help lead to a more cohesive and effective overall management strategy for wildfire in the rangelands of the northwestern US that begets a reduction in the prevalence and intensity of large ecosystem-altering fires in the future resulting in the better protection of existing, and the creation of new, healthy sustainable sagebrush steppe ecosystems for the benefit of the native fish and wildlife that rely on them as well as for the benefit of current and future generations of recreators and land users.